Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Nominees Announced.

The short list of nominees to be part of the 2012 induction class was announced, and quite a list it is (Percentages per Future Rock Legends):

Beastie Boys
Current Induction Chances: 82%

The Cure
Current Induction Chances: 57%

Donovan
Current Induction Chances: 11%

Eric B. & Rakim
Current Induction Chances: 41%

Guns N' Roses
Current Induction Chances: 76%

Heart
Current Induction Chances: 17%

Joan Jett & the Blackhearts
Current Induction Chances: 16%

Freddie King
Current Induction Chances: 5%

Laura Nyro
Current Induction Chances: 31%

Red Hot Chili Peppers
Current Induction Chances: 64%

Rufus with Chaka Khan
Current Induction Chances: 10%

The Small Faces / The Faces
Current Induction Chances: 33%

The Spinners
Current Induction Chances: 8%

Donna Summer
Current Induction Chances: 56%

War
Current Induction Chances: 30%

Two of the three potential nominees I spoke of in July are on the list--no-brainer Guns N' Roses and surprise pick Eric B. and Rakim. The only one of the acts first eligible this year that could be possibly considered a slight would be the exclusion of Soundgarden. But not much of one.

This list will be whittled down to five inductees. Trying to decide who will be inducted is a fun game, because the Rock Hall voting committee is notoriously mercurial in their selection process. Here is my handicap of the list, breaking it down to "In," "Possibly In," "Most Likely Out" and "Out".

1. Beastie Boys: IN: You could make the argument that the Beasties should have been a first ballot inductee, but this is their third nomination. Why the delay? Well, you become eligible for induction 25 years after your first recorded release. This could be albums, singles or EPs. The Beasties put out a number of singles/EPs before their breakout album, Licensed to Ill, which is why they were nominated so early. Conventional wisdom state that the voters would wait until 25 years after Licensed to Ill to induct them. That just happens to be this year.
2. The Cure: MOST LIKELY OUT: They are deserving, but this is their first nomination in their eight years of eligibility. That usually indicates they will not be inducted now, but possibly in the future. Also, the fact that other similar acts such as The Smiths, Bauhaus and Joy Division that many think are equally if not more deserving than The Cure have yet to be nominated might affect the voters' choice in the matter.
3. Donovan: MOST LIKELY OUT: This is his second nod in consecutive years. His induction might come in a weaker year, but not in this one. He is just over the boundary of being included, in my opinion, and that typically means he will make way for more worthy candidates.
4. Eric B. & Rakim: OUT: Not that they are not worthy. They are (and the nominating committee should get credit for recognizing that fact) but they are behind a long line of rap artists who are just as deserving to get in. The Rock Hall, for some reason, believes that rap artists have to be made to wait. You figure the Beasties this year, past nominees Afrika Bambaataa and LLCool J in the future, then Eric B & Rakim would go into consideration. If these guys jump the line, it just wouldn't make sense.
5. Guns N' Roses: IN: The only way GN'R won't get in is if the voters are trying to make some sort of a statement. But they are the strongest of all the nominees--they're influential, they're innovative, and there is built-in drama surrounding whether or not all the original members will attend the induction ceremony. Can't see them not getting in.
6. Heart: OUT: A lot of articles about this list seem to indicate that the Wilson sisters are a shoo-in for the Hall. I don't think so. This is their first nod in over ten years of eligibility, and it's hard to get in when that happens. I think their change from hard rock band to anthemic arena rock band in the 80s will do more harm than good. But the most damning thing against them is that they are nominated the same year as...
7. Joan Jett and the Blackhearts: POSSIBLY IN: Personally, I think this band has a better chance of getting in. Jett is more of the legendary name in rock and roll, she has a load of history and even a film made about her (and her fellow Runaways). And the Blackhearts were more of a visceral rock band. They don't have the same late career switch to anthemic rock that Heart does. However, this is also their first nomination in seven years of eligibility. That is what doesn't make them a definite. The Hall is focusing in on women this year, which means both could be inducted. Or neither. But if only one is, I think it will be the Blackhearts.
8. Freddie King: OUT: He was definitely an influential and innovative blues musician, but there are contemporaries of his (Albert King, Albert Collins) that are not in. This is his first nod in over 30 years of eligibility.
9. Laura Nyro: POSSIBLY IN: She might not be well known, but this is her third consecutive nomination in her 30 years of eligibility. Obviously, the Hall likes her, or else she wouldn't get these nods, so I think this year will be her year.
10. Red Hot Chili Peppers: IN: This is another band that should have been a first ballot HOFer. I don't know why they weren't. But in this group, they are one of the strongest contenders. They also have an album out and intrigue about who will be up there to accept the induction. 
11. Rufus with Chaka Khan: MOST LIKELY OUT:
12. The Small Faces/The Faces: MOST LIKELY OUT: The combination of both incarnations of the band does give them an edge, but this might not be the year for them to get in, though they eventually will.
13. The Spinners: OUT: It is a long shot that they get in at all, let alone this year. But if they do, it will be the surprise of all surprises. Because if any R&B act from the 70s will be inducted, it will be...
14. Donna Summer: IN: This is her fourth nomination, and ever since Madonna got in, it was only a matter of time. And I think that time is now.
15. War: OUT:  This is their second nod, but I see them as being on the fence. Maybe in a weaker year, but I find it unlikely they will be in this year.

Movie: Super 8

Super 8 is super great!

Okay, I couldn't resist the pun. But the film is great. It excels on a number of levels.

Set in 1979, the story is about a group of kids who are shooting a DIY horror flick. One night, they sneak out of their houses at midnight to film at the local train station. As they are filming, they witness the local science teacher run his car into an oncoming train, causing a massive train wreck. The kids barely survive the experience and soon find out that the teacher wasn't trying to kill himself, he was trying to free something on the train. Something particularly nasty. And the worst part about it, the teacher was successful. A monster is let loose in the town, and chaos begins.

The film works as really good fright film. It also works as an homage to the works of Steven Spielberg (who produced the film). It also works as a display of the love of film making and the technical aspects that go into it.

J.J. Abrams knows how to work the camera and manipulate the audiences. The film is scary with out being overly gory. It gets its shocks from lulling the audience into expecting one thing and then delivering another. Abrams also uses a trick that Spielberg employed in Jaws when he only gives us a full view of the monster when he absolutely has to. Typically, he keeps the monster in the shadows, showing only the after effects of his carnage. This increases suspense and keeps the audience on its toes.

The film is a love letter to early Spielberg in other ways too. From the types of shots he uses, to the way he celebrates small town/suburban life, to the way he keeps an emotional core in all of his films, all of that Abrams uses in this film. And he does a fine job of it.

And the film is also a display of  the love of film making. The kids are so passionate about the film they are creating that they are willing to risk anything for it--death, dismemberment, grounding--to get it finished. This allows the film to act as a meta commentary on itself. When the director of the film< Charles (Riley Griffiths) tells our lead, Joe Lamb (Joel Courtney) that he is introducing the detective's wife into the film because that will make the audience care about the zombie film's characters more, we are reminded that we are watching a young man in Joe Lamb who is still grieving from the loss of his mother months prior. And because we feel for his sorrow, we care about him more.

The acting is top notch all the way through. Instead of going the superstar route, Abrams when with solid actors with a modicum of being recognizable. Since he has actors who are able to disappear in the role, this draws the audience in. And actors like Kyle Chandler can tell more of a story with his facial expression after an argument than most actors can with pages of dialogue.

The film is set in 1979 by design. In the present day, in a world of smart phone that can shoot video, and digital recorders that can film faster and more immediate than Super 8 film, the story would not have time to develop as it does. Back in the dark ages of the late 70s, when a rush film development job took three days, you have more time for the subplots and chaos to develop. They stay pretty close to period, with some anachronisms here and there (one of the kids references a Rubik's Cube when the toy hadn't arrived on American shores until the next year and didn't become a crazy until a year or two after) but the tone they create is palpable and real.

There are some unanswered questions we are meant to suspend belief on (like how the science teacher, even considering he might have military connections, know that the monster was going to be transported on THAT train at THAT time). But all in all, the film is a great movie. And one you should go see,

My Ruminations About the Possible 2012 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Candidates.

It's been a while since I blogged about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but that doesn't mean I am any less fascinated by it. We are still a couple months away from the nominations, but I thought I'd be proactive and rant about it now.

What makes the the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame so fascinating--what makes all Hall of Fame fascinating--is not who's in but who's not in and why.

If you judge strictly buy the name, any musical act that has sold a certain number of albums and has a certain number of fans in their fan club should be in the Rock Hall. But it isn't truly about "fame". The Rock Hall organizers say acts need to be "influential" and "innovative" to be inducted the Hall. They also ignore these qualifications almost immediately. Because you don't get much more influential or innovative than Rush and KISS, Peter Gabriel or The Replacements, the Red Hot Chili Peppers or Beastie Boys, yet none of them are in the hall. Few have even made the nomination short list.

The Rock Hall has been in remedial housecleaning mode the last few years. The five inductees last year--Alice Cooper, Neil Diamond, Darlene Love, Dr. John and Tom Waits--have had an average wait on the eligibility list of 16.8 years. That's over a decade and a half wait to get in. Waits had it fairly easy. He only had to wait 11 years. Diamond and Love were on the waiting list for 21 years!

This is another irksome quality about the Hall of Fame--the hierarchy of the hall induction. If you are a special artist, maybe, maybe, you'll get in on your first year of eligibility. If not, you'll have to wait until they deem you worthy of entry. The Baseball Hall of Fame does the same thing. You hear baseball writers say "He's not good enough to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Maybe next year." I figure if he worthy of being in the Hall of Fame at all, he worthy of being in the Hall on the first try. But that's just me.

It seems silly to call out any Hall of Fame as being too elitist--it is a Hall of Fame after all. But the Rock Hall is especially elitist. The nomination board is composed mostly of rock journalists, pretentious group that they are, and music executives who let their biases speak for themselves. I've seen a quote from one board member, it might have been Rolling Stone's Anthony DeCurtis, where he said he'd rather die than vote for KISS. That's nice.

It doesn't help that while they nominate eleven acts, they only elect five. This does create a false air of prestige for induction to the Hall, but pretty much guarantees that every year some worthy acts are left out.

This is the list of possible eligibles for 2011-2012 from Future Rock Legends.com:

American Music Club

Babyface

Belinda Carlisle

Bob Geldof

Bobby Brown

BoDeans

Bonfire

Boredoms

Bruce Hornsby and the Range

Cinderella

Concrete Blonde

Cowboy Junkies

Cro-Mags

Crowded House

Dag Nasty

David & David

Dwarves

Dweezil Zappa

Eric B. & Rakim

Fields of the Nephilim

Glass Tiger

Gregory Abbott

Guided By Voices

Guns N' Roses

The Jayhawks

Kool Moe Dee

The Lemonheads

Los Fabulosos Cadillacs

Lyle Lovett

Matthew Sweet

The Melvins

Michelle Shocked

The Mission

New Kids On The Block

Poison

Racer X

Roxette

Salt N Pepa

Samantha Fox

Schooly D

The Sharks

Soundgarden

Spacemen 3

Tesla

They Might Be Giants

Throwing Muses

Vince Dicola

World Party

Yanni

Yo La Tengo

The size of the font indicate who visitors to the site think have the best chance of being inducted into the Hall. Arguably, Guns 'N Roses does have the best chance to get a nomination, with perhaps Soundgarden as a longshot. Eric B. and Rakim are deserving, the Hall is a couple years behind on inducting rap stars into the Hall. They'll have to get in line behind Beastie Boys and LL Cool J.

So, this year should be another housekeeping year. Will those two make it in? Will Rush finally get nominated? We'll find out in the fall.

I'm back and will try to post more often!