Current Induction Chances: 82%
Current Induction Chances: 57%
Current Induction Chances: 11%
Current Induction Chances: 41%
Current Induction Chances: 76%
Current Induction Chances: 17%
Current Induction Chances: 16%
Current Induction Chances: 5%
Current Induction Chances: 31%
Current Induction Chances: 64%
Current Induction Chances: 10%
Current Induction Chances: 33%
Current Induction Chances: 8%
Current Induction Chances: 56%
Current Induction Chances: 30%
Two of the three potential nominees I spoke of in July are on the list--no-brainer Guns N' Roses and surprise pick Eric B. and Rakim. The only one of the acts first eligible this year that could be possibly considered a slight would be the exclusion of Soundgarden. But not much of one.
This list will be whittled down to five inductees. Trying to decide who will be inducted is a fun game, because the Rock Hall voting committee is notoriously mercurial in their selection process. Here is my handicap of the list, breaking it down to "In," "Possibly In," "Most Likely Out" and "Out".
- Beastie Boys: IN: You could make the argument that the Beasties should have been a first ballot inductee, but this is their third nomination. Why the delay? Well, you become eligible for induction 25 years after your first recorded release. This could be albums, singles or EPs. The Beasties put out a number of singles/EPs before their breakout album, Licensed to Ill, which is why they were nominated so early. Conventional wisdom state that the voters would wait until 25 years after Licensed to Ill to induct them. That just happens to be this year.
- The Cure: MOST LIKELY OUT: They are deserving, but this is their first nomination in their eight years of eligibility. That usually indicates they will not be inducted now, but possibly in the future. Also, the fact that other similar acts such as The Smiths, Bauhaus and Joy Division that many think are equally if not more deserving than The Cure have yet to be nominated might affect the voters' choice in the matter.
- Donovan: MOST LIKELY OUT: This is his second nod in consecutive years. His induction might come in a weaker year, but not in this one. He is just over the boundary of being included, in my opinion, and that typically means he will make way for more worthy candidates.
- Eric B. & Rakim: OUT: Not that they are not worthy. They are (and the nominating committee should get credit for recognizing that fact) but they are behind a long line of rap artists who are just as deserving to get in. The Rock Hall, for some reason, believes that rap artists have to be made to wait. You figure the Beasties this year, past nominees Afrika Bambaataa and LLCool J in the future, then Eric B & Rakim would go into consideration. If these guys jump the line, it just wouldn't make sense.
- Guns N' Roses: IN: The only way GN'R won't get in is if the voters are trying to make some sort of a statement. But they are the strongest of all the nominees--they're influential, they're innovative, and there is built-in drama surrounding whether or not all the original members will attend the induction ceremony. Can't see them not getting in.
- Heart: OUT: A lot of articles about this list seem to indicate that the Wilson sisters are a shoo-in for the Hall. I don't think so. This is their first nod in over ten years of eligibility, and it's hard to get in when that happens. I think their change from hard rock band to anthemic arena rock band in the 80s will do more harm than good. But the most damning thing against them is that they are nominated the same year as...
- Joan Jett and the Blackhearts: POSSIBLY IN: Personally, I think this band has a better chance of getting in. Jett is more of the legendary name in rock and roll, she has a load of history and even a film made about her (and her fellow Runaways). And the Blackhearts were more of a visceral rock band. They don't have the same late career switch to anthemic rock that Heart does. However, this is also their first nomination in seven years of eligibility. That is what doesn't make them a definite. The Hall is focusing in on women this year, which means both could be inducted. Or neither. But if only one is, I think it will be the Blackhearts.
- Freddie King: OUT: He was definitely an influential and innovative blues musician, but there are contemporaries of his (Albert King, Albert Collins) that are not in. This is his first nod in over 30 years of eligibility.
- Laura Nyro: POSSIBLY IN: She might not be well known, but this is her third consecutive nomination in her 30 years of eligibility. Obviously, the Hall likes her, or else she wouldn't get these nods, so I think this year will be her year.
- Red Hot Chili Peppers: IN: This is another band that should have been a first ballot HOFer. I don't know why they weren't. But in this group, they are one of the strongest contenders. They also have an album out and intrigue about who will be up there to accept the induction.
- Rufus with Chaka Khan: MOST LIKELY OUT:
- The Small Faces/The Faces: MOST LIKELY OUT: The combination of both incarnations of the band does give them an edge, but this might not be the year for them to get in, though they eventually will.
- The Spinners: OUT: It is a long shot that they get in at all, let alone this year. But if they do, it will be the surprise of all surprises. Because if any R&B act from the 70s will be inducted, it will be...
- Donna Summer: IN: This is her fourth nomination, and ever since Madonna got in, it was only a matter of time. And I think that time is now.
- War: OUT: This is their second nod, but I see them as being on the fence. Maybe in a weaker year, but I find it unlikely they will be in this year.